Occupation and Social Mobility in Mexico: the trap of labor precariousness

Abstract

In Mexico, as in other Latin American countries, there is a serious structural problem of poverty and inequality. These phenomena have been widely studied from different perspectives. This article examines the influence of occupation on social mobility in Mexico to understand the limited upward mobility linked to labor precariousness. The study employed a longitudinal design based on the rotating panel scheme of the National Survey of Occupation and Employment (ENOE) for the 2014-2024 period. The analyzed universe consisted of employed persons, grouped through a proposal of "occupational classes" (low, middle, and high). The analytical strategy involved the use of Markov chains to estimate inter-occupational transition probabilities in the short and long term. The results highlighted the persistence of precarious conditions and a high probability of remaining in lower strata, evidencing a "precariousness trap" where occupation has little relevance for social advancement due to low wages and loss of purchasing power. It is concluded that higher occupational classes are more stable for informal workers than for formal ones and that, in the long term, the trend points toward an increase in the proportion of workers in the lower class. These findings have critical implications for wage public policy and the psychosocial well-being of workers.